Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.032408 0.036962 0.041961 0.047859 0.054636 0.062187 0.071251
2024-12-29 0.025886 0.032190 0.039757 0.049537 0.061881 0.076993 0.096978
2025-01-05 0.021068 0.027738 0.036236 0.047908 0.063602 0.084084 0.113025
2025-01-12 0.018004 0.024826 0.033949 0.047118 0.065769 0.091431 0.129746
2025-01-19 0.015352 0.022016 0.031301 0.045284 0.065991 0.095807 0.142504
2025-01-26 0.014270 0.021216 0.031267 0.047012 0.071314 0.107826 0.167630
2025-02-02 0.013357 0.020521 0.031252 0.048676 0.076614 0.120265 0.194794
2025-02-09 0.012566 0.019900 0.031239 0.050277 0.081904 0.133156 0.224139
2025-02-16 0.011475 0.018674 0.030133 0.049961 0.083980 0.140982 0.245850
2025-02-23 0.010649 0.017784 0.029455 0.050241 0.087017 0.150638 0.271768
2025-03-02 0.009753 0.016682 0.028306 0.049568 0.088281 0.157280 0.292939
2025-03-09 0.009239 0.016179 0.028115 0.050532 0.092519 0.169604 0.326089
2025-03-16 0.008511 0.015247 0.027115 0.049985 0.094021 0.177242 0.351576
2025-03-23 0.008176 0.014993 0.027306 0.051667 0.099934 0.193925 0.397351
2025-03-30 0.007417 0.013880 0.025811 0.049969 0.099048 0.197178 0.415774
2025-04-06 0.006851 0.013079 0.024820 0.049143 0.099787 0.203715 0.441917
2025-04-13 0.006213 0.012081 0.023361 0.047226 0.098065 0.204944 0.456505
2025-04-20 0.006053 0.012009 0.023707 0.049032 0.104358 0.223817 0.513378
2025-04-27 0.005893 0.011921 0.024009 0.050771 0.110685 0.243458 0.574681
2025-05-04 0.005734 0.011820 0.024272 0.052446 0.117041 0.263867 0.640608
2025-05-11 0.005399 0.011318 0.023652 0.052115 0.118796 0.273898 0.682212
2025-05-18 0.005145 0.010969 0.023326 0.052408 0.122024 0.287741 0.735383
2025-05-25 0.004827 0.010455 0.022598 0.051704 0.122804 0.295756 0.774405